Nuclear Proliferation WebQuest
An Internet WebQuest on Nuclear Proliferatin

created by M. Dymerski
CISEP

Introduction | The Task | The Process | Conclusion |


Introduction
On July 16, 1945 the United States of America tested the world's first atomic weapon. The Soviet Union then tested its firts atomic weapon in September 1949. Since then, advances in nuclear technology have created smaller, more efficient weapons and more and more countries have entered into the race.

Nuclear Proliferation is one of the most pressing American Foreign Policy issues of our time. What should America do as additional countries become nuclear powers? Does it matter which country becomes nuclear? For example, is it okay that an ally like India develops a nuclear weapons program? And what about Iran?

You may know how you feel, but do you know the facts? Through this WebQuest, you will learn about the current state of nuclear proliferation. Then you will take on the role of an intelligence officer participating on the National Intelligence Council (NIC). As a team your group will write a National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) to inform the president regarding Iran's nuclear program and its potential to develop nuclear weapons.

Good Luck! And remember- its only the survival of the human race were talking about here....

Task
Should the U.S. be concerned about nuclear proliferation in Iran?

Your task is to gather relevant information and write a National Intelligence Estimate predicting the evolution of Iran's nuclear program over the next 5 to 10 years.

Opinions are not enough here-- National Intelligence Estimates are critical documents used by the president to make informed decisions, decisions that can lead to or prevent war!

Process
In this WebQuest you will be working together with a group of students in class. In Phase 1 each group will answer a series of background questions on nuclear proliferation. In Phase 2 you will come together as a team to write a NIE. (9-12 pages including title page etc...) As a member of the group you will explore Webpages from a variety of sites related to Nuclear Proliferation and the nuclear program in Iran. Because these are real Webpages we're tapping into, not things made just for schools, the reading level might challenge you. But don't worry- you will get plenty of support from your team, your teacher, and the online Webster dictionary.

You'll begin with everyone in your group getting the same general background on nuclear proliferation. Each of you will have to write separate responses to the background questions. Of course you may discuss the questions as a group, but your answers must be your own. Once every one in the group has completed the intitial questions, the Team Chief (appointed by the teacher) should check each paper to make sure everyone in the group has completed each question and understands the material. Once checked the Team Chief should staple all of the team's work together and turn it in to the teacher. The Team Chief will then be given the remainder of the group's roles to take back to the team so that you may move onto phase 2.

Phase 1 - Background Information
Use the Internet information linked below to develop sufficient background on the history of nuclear proliferation. You may discuss the research with your group, but you must turn in your own answer sheet with your own answers.ALL ANSWERS MUST BE IN COMPLETE SENTENCE FORMAT!

Questions:
The Legacy of the Manhattan Project
1.What was the Manhattan Project?
2.When and where did the atomic age begin?
3.How visible was the first blast from the Trinity test site?
4.What were some of the ideas regarding dropping the bomb in Japan?
5.What is the Enola Gay?
6.What were the effects of the first atomic bomb in Japan?
7.Why did the U.S. decide to drop a second bomb?
8.Why is the decision to drop the bomb still debated today?

Nuclear Proliferation Treaty
1.What is nuclear proliferation?
2.What is the NPT?
4.When was the NPT originally signed?
5.What are the two main agreements in the NPT?
6.Have the nuclear power states fulfilled their end of the bargain?
7.Which countries are not party to the NPT?
8.What does article four of the NPT secure?
9.Why is article 4 of the NPT so important to non-nuclear powers?
10.Do you think article 4 creates a 'loop-hole' for weapons development?--Explain

Fact Sheet- Nuclear Testing Tally
1.Which countries have tested nuclear weapons?
2.How many nuclear weapons has the United States tested?
3.Which country has tested the least number of nuclear weapons?
4.How many tests have been conducted since 1945?

U.S. Announces Nuclear Exception For India
1.What is controversial about the 2007 U.S. agreement with India?
2.How does Washington D.C. justify its agreement with India?

What if Terrorists go nuclear
1.How does terrorism change the debate about nuclear proliferation?
2.Why is a 'dirty bomb' a likely scenario for terrorists?
3.Would it be easy for terrorists to get a hold of bomb-grade nuclear fissile material to build a nuclear weapon?
4.Why might an unstable government in Pakistan be a concern for the U.S.?


Phase 2 - Roles
INSTRUCTIONS:

1. The teacher has assigned an individual role to each member of the team. In that role, you will become an expert on a particular sub-topic. It is critical that you complete your readings and questions carefully and completely as the other members of your team will not get a chance to read the same information. Additionally, you will be expected to explain your research to the other members of your group so that your group's response to the 'Big Question' is well informed. Your answer sheets will be collected at the end and do count as part of your grade. Do not lose them!

2. Read through the files linked to your role. If you print out the files, underline the passages that you feel are the most important. If you look at the files on the computer, copy sections you feel are important by dragging the mouse across the passage and copying / pasting it into a word processor or other writing software.

3. Note: Remember to write down or copy/paste the URL of the file you take the passage from so you can quickly go back to it if you need to to prove your point. Also- this will really help with your bibliography!(Bibliographies and citations must be in appropriate format.)

4. Be prepared to discuss what you've learned in your individual role and how it shapes your team's position on the 'Big Question' you must address for the NIE .

Role # 1 DIA- Defense Intelligence Agency, research analyst:

Use the Internet information linked below to answer these questions specifically related to nuclear weapons basics:

Effects of Nuclear Weapons Detonations
1.What are the 3 categories of immediate effects of a nuclear explosion?
2.With an explosive yeild of 2.5kt, how far can fatal injuries be inflicted?
3.What does the rate at which fallout settles depend on?
4.Why is the stratoshpere important?
5.How dangerous is long-delayed fallout from a yeild greater than 100kt?
6.What is the range of yeilds typical in the modern U.S. arsenal?

Nuclear Weapons Info
1. Was Chernobyl a wepons or energy plant?
2. How did the accident at Chernobyl compare to a nuclear war?
3. What is an EMP?

Hiroshima
1. How big was the yeild of the A-bomb used in Hiroshima?
2. How hot was it at ground zero in Hiroshima?
3. What was the wind velocity 1 mile out from ground zero in Hiroshima?
4. What observations have been made about radiation and the A-bomb survivors in Hiroshima?

Iran Nuclear Program
1. What are the 4 essential components of a nuclear weapons program?
2. According to the unclassified 2007 NIE, when might Iran have the technical capability to produce enough Highly Enriched Uranium for a nuclear weapons program?
3.Where did Iran get its technical nuclear weapons information/training back in 1985?
4.What is significant about Iran's improvement of the Shahab-3 missile?

Understanding the NIE (Scroll to 'What the NIE says About Iran's Intentions)
1.What type of nuclear weapons work had Iran done prior to 2003?
2. According to proliferation experts, once a country has the required fissile material (HUE) how long would it take them to weaponize?
3.According the the intelligence community, when might Iran have enough HUE-uranium to go to the next stage of weaponization?
4.What might we learn about Iran from knowing that they halted their nulcear weapons development in 2003?
5. What measures did Iran revoke in 2006 and does it mean anything?

Role # 2 CIA- Central Intelligence Agency research analyst:

Use the Internet information linked below to answer these questions specifically related to CIA- currrent events:

Global Security-1
1. When did Iran begin its nuclear program?
2. Has the Iranian program been aimed at wepons production or energy production?
3. What does ratify mean?
4. When did Iran ratify the NPT?

Global Security-2
1. What happened in 2004 to cause the American government to become suspicious of Iran's nuclear program?
2. What did US Under Secretary of State John Bolton say about Iran in 2004?

Iran Nuclear Program- NIE
1. What are the 4 essential components of a nuclear weapons program?
2. According to the unclassified 2007 NIE, when might Iran have the technical capability to produce enough Highly Enriched Uranium for a nuclear weapons program?
3.Where did Iran get its technical nuclear weapons information/training back in 1985?
4.What is significant about Iran's improvement of the Shahab-3 missile?

Understanding the NIE (Scroll to 'What the NIE says About Iran's Intentions)
1.What type of nuclear weapons work had Iran done prior to 2003?
2. According to proliferation experts, once a country has the required fissile material (HUE) how long would it take them to weaponize?
3.According the the intelligence community, when might Iran have enough HUE-uranium to go to the next stage of weaponization?
4.What might we learn about Iran from knowing that they halted their nulcear weapons development in 2003?
5. What measures did Iran revoke in 2006 and does it mean anything?

Iran Weapons Program Update
1.When was the last NIE on Iranian Nuclear Weapons programs?
2.According to the last NIE- what exactly was 'halted'?
3.What are the 4 essential components for the development of a nuclear weapons program?
4.What is significant about the Natanz site?
5.What does Tehran say about Natanz?
6.According to the old NIE- when coud Iran have enough HEU for a weapons program?
7.When did Iran begin its secret uranium enrichment program?
8.Who helped Iran in the 1980s?
9. Why does this article refer to President Ahmadinejad as a 'hardliner'?
10.What missile capability does Iran have?

Role # 3 STATE-State Department , Middle East specialist, Iran desk:

Use the Internet information linked below to answer these questions specifically related to STATE- Iran background:
Country Profile
1. What is the Capital of Iran?
2. List 4 countries that border Iran.
3. What happened on Nov. 4, 1979? How & when did it end?
4. What was happening with Iraq in the 1980s?
5. Who is Mohammad Khatami?
6. Who is Ayatollah Khamenei?
7. What two factions try to influence Khatami today?
8. How did Iran cooperate with the War on Terror?
9. What did the IAEA find in Iran in 2003?
10 What happened in the 2004 elections?


Is it innevitable
1. What year does this artilce claim will mark the development of Iran's nuclear weapons capability?
2.How will this impact other Arab nations?
3.What country gave up its nuclear technology?
4.What country did not give it up to spite American efforts to persuade?
5.What does this article recommend as incentives for Iran to stop its porgrams?
6. What does this article recommend as punishments for Iran to force them to stop the programs?
7. What do the 'roadmap elements' 2 & 5 mean for Barak Obama?

Iran's Supreme Leader
1.Who does Ayatollah Ali Khamenei support in the 2009 election?
2.How do most people feel about the Ahmadinejad administration?
3.Why is Ayatollah Khamenei's support such a big deal?

Khatami predicted to eneter Iran presidential race
1.How did Khatami relate to the West when he was president?
2.How does the Iranian public feel about Khatami?
3.Who really has power in Iran when it comes to major foreign policy decisions?

Role # 4Team Cheif:

Use the Internet information linked below to answer these questions specifically related to Chief- NIE & proliferation overviews:

NIC Mission
1. What role does the NIC play for policymakers/pres & congress?
2. How does the NIC impact the intelligence community?

History of the NIC
1. When did the NIC begin to formally produce 'estimative' reports?
2. How was the creation of the NIC related to Pearl Harbor?
3. What was the topic of the first informal NIE in 1950?

NIE Executive Summary
1. What is the titel and date of this declassified escutive summary?
2. What is this NIE estimating in the first paragraph?
3. What problem is summarized in paragraph 2?
4. In paragraph 3- what conclusion do the quotes lead you to believe?
5. In paragraph 4- what options are presented?
6. Use the above questions to write out an outline for use in your team's NIE Executive summary.

Declassified NIE-1
1. What information appears on the title page?
2. Around page 5- something other than text appears in this NIE- what is it?

Declassified NIE-2 (released document- still has much information deleted)(from Freedom of Information Act)
*pay close attention to the format! Your team needs to copy it!
1. What is on the title page?
2. What information is on page 2? (hard to read- but you can do it)
3. How many 'new developments' are desribed on page 5-6? (notice they are talking about new developments...you will also.
4. On page 9, under point 11- what is this paper estimating- how do they use time in their estimate?
5. What iniformation is on page 13? (who will you give this to?)

Iranian Nuclear Program-NIE
1. What are the 4 essential components of a nuclear weapons program?
2. According to the unclassified 2007 NIE, when might Iran have the technical capability to produce enough Highly Enriched Uranium for a nuclear weapons program?
3.Where did Iran get its technical nuclear weapons information/training back in 1985?
4.What is significant about Iran's improvement of the Shahab-3 missile?

Teacher notes:

Please email Michelle Dymerski if you would like more information about this WebQuest. michelle_dymerski@pitzer.edu


Phase 3 - Reaching Consensus
You have all learned about a specific sub-topic within the scholarship on Nuclear Proliferation. Now group members come back to the larger WebQuest team with expertise gained by searching from one perspective. You must all now answer the 'Big Question' as a group and begin writing for your NIE. Incorporate the basics of nuclear proliferation with the specific issues and conditions you have learned in your role. You are the experts! Each of you must share what you have learned with the others and how your reseach influences the NIE. As a member of the NIC you do not write policy, but your NIE must include your predictions about the status of Iranian proliferation in the 1-3 and 4-5 year outlook. You should provide the reasons for your predictions and make clear your degree of confidence in making each prediction. Your NIE will probabaly lead policy makers down a specific path and help them decide if America should be concerned and if/when Iran will become a nuclear power?

Page 1- Title page with student names and roles.(Chief)
Page 2- Executive summary- 150 words exactly. (Chief)
Page 3- Table of Contents (Chief)
Page 4- Overview of Nuclear Proliferation (DIA)
Page 6- Current profile of Iran (State Dept)
Page 8- Iran's nuclear program today (CIA)
Page 9- One-Three year estimate(all) (new developments)(what will the program look like/why)
Page 10- Four-Five year estimate(all) (what will the program look like/why)
Page 11- Bibliography (Chief puts citations from teams into one pg)
Page 12- Dissemination sheet (chief)
Appendix- Everyone's answer sheets from their individual role assignments. Team Chief- check that you have one from everyone!

* When you write the 1-3 and 4-5 year estimates you must provide the evidence that brought you to your conclusions. That evidence may include a leader's political stance, upcoming elections, popular attitudes, pressure from powerful groups, technological capabilities, financial resources, external support/sanctions....

* Only the Team Chief should be coming to the teacher to ask questions.

Conclusion
Some times it's easy to come up with an opinion that may not be based on facts or understanding. Particularly for a topic as broad or complex as Nuclear Proliferation: when you only know part of the picture, you only know part of the picture. Now you all know a lot more- not only about nuclear weapons, proliferation,and Iran- but also the role of advisors in policy making and the chance for human error/success. Keep up with the topic over the next year and see if your predictions were on target.
Nice work scholars. You should be proud of yourselves!

created by Filamentality Content by M. Dymerski, michelle_dymerski@pitzer.edu
http://www.kn.att.com/wired/fil/pages/webnuclearm.html
Last revised Wed Nov 18 13:21:16 US/Pacific 2009